Moore's Law and the Future
Sir Maurice Wilkes
Computer Laboratory, Cambridge
It is clear that we are within sight of the point at which further shrinkage of CMOS circuits will become impossible for physical reasons. This point will be signaled by sharply increasing costs.
I shall comment on how Moore's law is seen by the Semiconductor Industries which is responsible for the
publication of the International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors, and on the problems that will eventually bring to an end the regular doubling of the number of components that can be put on a chip.
Further advances will surely take place, but it is hard to figure out what they will be or when they will take place. I shall comment on the outlook as I see it, but I lay no claim to special insights.
